For AHL forwards, rookie numbers at age 20 give us some idea about offensive ability—and how far their careers may go. Kyle Platzer didn’t get a lot of playing time this season, but estimated time on ice gives us a chance to compare him against other 20-year olds on a more level playing field. Let’s have a look.
EXPLAINING THE NUMBERS
Prospects-Stats is a brilliant website that estimates time on ice (and scoring rates) across the AHL. This is extremely valuable (if imperfect) information because it allows us to view players across teams and deployment range in one quick glance. The numbers below are all prospects aged 19.5 through 20 years old and their estimated points-per-60 (35 or more games, in all situations).
- LW Jakub Vrana, Washington Capitals 2.862
LW Hunter Shinkaruk, Calgary Flames 2.778 (acquired from Vancouver)
- RW Tobias Lindberg, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.564 (acquired from Ottawa)
C Jason Dickinson, Dallas Stars 2.52
- LW Nikolay Goldobin, San Jose Sharks 2.461
LW Anthony Mantha, Detroit Red Wings 2.448
LW Kerby Rychel, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.273 (acquired from Columbus)
- LW Nick Ritchie, Anaheim Ducks 2.246
- RW Justin Bailey, Buffalo Sabres 2.226
- C Nic Petan, Winnipeg Jets 2.145
RW Ryan Hartman, Chicago Blackhawks 2.143
LW William Carrier, Buffalo Sabres 2.109
- LW Cole Ully, Dallas Stars 2.102
- LW Danick Martel, Philadelphia Flyers 2.084
- RW Oliver Bjorkstrand, Columbus Blue Jackets 2.00
- C Nick Baptiste, Buffalo Sabres 1.979
- RW Emile Poirier, Calgary Flames 1.945
- C Michael McCarron, Montreal Canadiens 1.894
- C Bogdan Yakimov, Edmonton Oilers 1.788
- LW Michael Bunting, Arizona Coyotes 1.784
- LW Adam Tambellini, New York Rangers 1.763
- C Ivan Barbashev, St. Louis Blues 1.745
- LW Sergey Tolchinsky, Carolina Hurricanes 1.728
- C Chase De Leo, Winnipeg Jets 1.693
- LW Tyler Bertuzzi, Detroit Red Wings 1.633
- RW Nikita Scherbak, Montreal Canadiens 1.591
- C Nick Paul, Ottawa Senators 1.538
- C Colby Cave, Boston Bruins 1.527
- LW Adam Erne, Tampa Bay Lightning 1.497
- C Ryan Kujawinski, New Jersey Devils 1.488
- C Kyle Platzer, Edmonton Oilers 1.46
- C Frederk Gauthier, Toronto Maple Leafs 1.454
- RW Valentin Zykov, Carolina Hurricanes 1.435
- C Laurent Dauphin, Arizona Coyotes 1.371
- RW Remi Elie, Dallas Stars 1.344
- LW Jean Dupuy, Buffalo Sabres 1.327
- LW Anton Blidh, Providence Bruins 0.962
- LW Nick Moutrey, Columbus Blue Jackets 0.917
- C Jeremy Gregoire, Montreal Canadiens 0.862
- RW Hunter Smith, Calgary Flames 0.853
- LW Morgan Klimchuk, Calgary Flames 0.790
- RW Jimmy Lodge, Winnipeg Jets 0.754
- RW Cole Cassels, Vancouver Canucks 0.553
- The Capitals are excited about Jakub Vrana, for good reason.
- All of the players in italics (over 2.00) should have a very good shot at NHL careers (barring injury).
- In that group, Tobias Lindberg, Cole Ully and Danick Martell are not famous—but showed terrific results.
- AHL contract Marco Roy posted a 2.075 number—that ranked him No. 15 on the list. Edmonton did not (or has not) signed him.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs traded for two guys who were near the top of the list. Coincidence? Their advanced metrics team may be pick pockets.
- Calgary acquired a dandy prospect in Shinkaruk.
- Bogdan Yakimov—who will play in the KHL this season—shows pretty well here.
- Kyle Platzer is in the bottom group, and that is probably a fair assessment of his offense. A player without a ton of offense will need to bring a lot of two-way ability, and that does dovetail with Platzer’s resume.
- Cole Cassels is regarded as an exceptional checking forward, but the offense was the worst of the available group this season.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Based on these estimates (and they are estimates), the Toronto Maple Leafs should not be trusted. As for the Oilers, Yakimov (who was an old 20) looks like he could emerge as a prospect, Platzer less so. It is a snapshot and it is important to remember that fourth-round picks (Platzer was chosen there in 2013) falling shy of the NHL does not mean failure—at the starting gate, he had a 24 percent chance of playing 100 or more NHL games. Still, interesting season and we await his (their) second year in the league. PS, sign Marco Roy. (Platzer photo by Mark Williams)