THE TRUTH AT 20

Updated: January 11, 2018 at 2:06 am by Lowetide

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For AHL forwards, rookie numbers at age 20 give us some idea about offensive ability—and how far their careers may go. Kyle Platzer didn’t get a lot of playing time this season, but estimated time on ice gives us a chance to compare him against other 20-year olds on a more level playing field. Let’s have a look.

EXPLAINING THE NUMBERS

Prospects-Stats is a brilliant website that estimates time on ice (and scoring rates) across the AHL. This is extremely valuable (if imperfect) information because it allows us to view players across teams and deployment range in one quick glance. The numbers below are all prospects aged 19.5 through 20 years old and their estimated points-per-60 (35 or more games, in all situations).

  1. LW Jakub Vrana, Washington Capitals 2.862
  2. LW Hunter Shinkaruk, Calgary Flames 2.778 (acquired from Vancouver)

  3. RW Tobias Lindberg, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.564 (acquired from Ottawa)

  4. C Jason Dickinson, Dallas Stars 2.52

  5. LW Nikolay Goldobin, San Jose Sharks 2.461
  6. LW Anthony Mantha, Detroit Red Wings 2.448
  7. LW Kerby Rychel, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.273 (acquired from Columbus)

  8. LW Nick Ritchie, Anaheim Ducks 2.246

  9. RW Justin Bailey, Buffalo Sabres 2.226
  10. C Nic Petan, Winnipeg Jets 2.145
  11. RW Ryan Hartman, Chicago Blackhawks 2.143
  12. LW William Carrier, Buffalo Sabres 2.109
  13. LW Cole Ully, Dallas Stars 2.102
  14. LW Danick Martel, Philadelphia Flyers 2.084
  15. RW Oliver Bjorkstrand, Columbus Blue Jackets 2.00
  16. C Nick Baptiste, Buffalo Sabres 1.979
  17. RW Emile Poirier, Calgary Flames 1.945
  18. C Michael McCarron, Montreal Canadiens 1.894
  19. C Bogdan Yakimov, Edmonton Oilers 1.788
  20. LW Michael Bunting, Arizona Coyotes 1.784
  21. LW Adam Tambellini, New York Rangers 1.763
  22. C Ivan Barbashev, St. Louis Blues 1.745
  23. LW Sergey Tolchinsky, Carolina Hurricanes 1.728
  24. C Chase De Leo, Winnipeg Jets 1.693
  25. LW Tyler Bertuzzi, Detroit Red Wings 1.633
  26. RW Nikita Scherbak, Montreal Canadiens 1.591
  27. C Nick Paul, Ottawa Senators 1.538
  28. C Colby Cave, Boston Bruins 1.527
  29. LW Adam Erne, Tampa Bay Lightning 1.497
  30. C Ryan Kujawinski, New Jersey Devils 1.488
  31. C Kyle Platzer, Edmonton Oilers 1.46
  32. C Frederk Gauthier, Toronto Maple Leafs 1.454
  33. RW Valentin Zykov, Carolina Hurricanes 1.435
  34. C Laurent Dauphin, Arizona Coyotes 1.371
  35. RW Remi Elie, Dallas Stars 1.344
  36. LW Jean Dupuy, Buffalo Sabres 1.327
  37. LW Anton Blidh, Providence Bruins 0.962
  38. LW Nick Moutrey, Columbus Blue Jackets 0.917
  39. C Jeremy Gregoire, Montreal Canadiens 0.862
  40. RW Hunter Smith, Calgary Flames 0.853
  41. LW Morgan Klimchuk, Calgary Flames 0.790
  42. RW Jimmy Lodge, Winnipeg Jets 0.754
  43. RW Cole Cassels, Vancouver Canucks 0.553

Some notes:

  • The Capitals are excited about Jakub Vrana, for good reason.
  • All of the players in italics (over 2.00) should have a very good shot at NHL careers (barring injury).
  • In that group, Tobias Lindberg, Cole Ully and Danick Martell are not famous—but showed terrific results.
  • AHL contract Marco Roy posted a 2.075 number—that ranked him No. 15 on the list. Edmonton did not (or has not) signed him.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs traded for two guys who were near the top of the list. Coincidence? Their advanced metrics team may be pick pockets.
  • Calgary acquired a dandy prospect in Shinkaruk.
  • Bogdan Yakimov—who will play in the KHL this season—shows pretty well here.
  • Kyle Platzer is in the bottom group, and that is probably a fair assessment of his offense. A player without a ton of offense will need to bring a lot of two-way ability, and that does dovetail with Platzer’s resume.
  • Cole Cassels is regarded as an exceptional checking forward, but the offense was the worst of the available group this season.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Based on these estimates (and they are estimates), the Toronto Maple Leafs should not be trusted. As for the Oilers, Yakimov (who was an old 20) looks like he could emerge as a prospect, Platzer less so. It is a snapshot and it is important to remember that fourth-round picks (Platzer was chosen there in 2013) falling shy of the NHL does not mean failure—at the starting gate, he had a 24 percent chance of playing 100 or more NHL games. Still, interesting season and we await his (their) second year in the league. PS, sign Marco Roy. (Platzer photo by Mark Williams)