With the first round of the draft only a handful of hours away and at least a couple of trades sounding pretty likely to drop within the next 24 hours, now seems like a good time to take a surface-level look at the quality of players rumored to be available.
Domenic Galamini’s excellent HERO Charts provide us a great avenue to do that. I’ve compiled the Primary Points Per 60 and Relative Corsi For % numbers of both the forwards and defenseman that may or not be in play. These numbers give us a good look at which players teams would be smart to go after and which players teams should avoid.
Obviously there are more factors that go into a trade than just a couple of stats – age and contract are two huge factors, and the assets an inquiring team has to offer is another matter entirely. Still, this gives us an aforementioned surface-level look at these players, and does manage to clear the picture up a fair bit in terms of who teams should go after and who they should avoid.
Let’s take a look:
Unsurprisingly, the likes of Taylor Hall, Matt Duchene, and Jordan Eberle qualify as some of the top players supposedly in play on the trade market. Other names, like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Mikael Granlund, wouldn’t be bad pick-ups either.
At the bottom we see the likes of Dustin Brown, Marcus Kruger, and Andrew Shaw. These seem like players that teams would be smart to avoid.
Whether or not P.K. Subban really is available, teams are smart to be checking. He’s obviously an elite defenseman. The likes of Barrie, Lindholm, and Shattenkirk, all of whom have received a fair bit of love on Hockey Twitter as players people would like their teams to acquire, are also obviously excellent players.
Dmitry Orlov, who’s at risk of being lost for nothing in the expansion draft, could be a very smart pick-up by someone, especially considering he averaged just 16 minutes per game last year. That suggests he might be able to be had for much less than what a Subban or Shattenkirk would cost you.
Deeper down the line, this table expresses why the idea of giving up a top ten pick for Cam Fowler is probably a bad idea. Giving up good assets for Dmitry Kulikov, who also sounds like he’s on his way to a new home, is also probably a bad idea.
We don’t have HERO Charts for goalies, but here are some of the goalies rumored to be in play, sorted by Adjusted Fenwick Save Percentage:
Fleury and Bishop seem to be the two most heavily-rumored guys that the Calgary Flames are after. Both are obviously great players, though GM Brad Treliving should be wary of the age and contract implications that come with both.
Oh, and Darcy Kuemper might not be the wisest gamble.
Some players on the trade market are very good and some are very bad. It’ll be interesting to see where some of the good ones get traded to, and funny to see where some of the bad ones go.