The Leafs’ Fenwick and Their Historical Playoff Odds

Updated: November 25, 2014 at 2:30 pm by Shawn Reis

The Leafs currently sit 23rd in the league with a 47.78% Fenwick and seem to have settled into the 47% range as a season average over the last few games.  It’s an improvement on the last couple of seasons and certainly makes their chances of getting into the playoffs better.  But by how much?

Like I said, the Leafs have seemed to settle into the 47% range for Fenwick over recent games.  What we also know is that once we get to about the 20 game mark there is an increasingly small chance that a team’s possession numbers will vary much by the end of the season.  With this in mind, it seems at least probable that the Leafs Fenwick will finish in the 46 to 48% range by the end of the season.  Knowing this, I looked at every team that had a Fenwick in this range over the last five 82 game seasons in the NHL to see how they fared.  Here’s the results:

Season

Team

Fenwick%

Conference
Seed

2008-2009

Nashville Predators

48.96

10th

2008-2009

Pittsburgh Penguins

48.95

4th

2008-2009

Vancouver Canucks

48.91

3rd

2011-2012

Anaheim Ducks

48.86

13th

2011-2012

New York Islanders

48.72

14th

2010-2011

Nashville Predators

48.44

5th

2009-2010

New York Islanders

48.44

13th

2008-2009

Philadelphia Flyers

48.37

5th

2009-2010

Dallas Stars

48.30

12th

2009-2010

Minnesota Wild

48.10

13th

2008-2009

Colorado Avalanche

48.08

15th

2011-2012

Buffalo Sabres

48.04

9th

2009-2010

Carolina Hurricanes

47.94

11th

2009-2010

Tampa Bay Lightning

47.86

12th

2013-2014

Montreal Canadiens

47.86

4th

2011-2012

Toronto Maple Leafs

47.84

13th

2010-2011

Dallas Stars

47.82

9th

2011-2012

Carolina Hurricanes

47.81

12th

2009-2010

Atlanta Thrashers

47.76

10th

2011-2012

Edmonton Oilers

47.75

14th

2011-2012

Tampa Bay Lightning

47.75

10th

2013-2014

Calgary Flames

47.75

13th

2009-2010

Columbus Blue Jackets

47.74

14th

2011-2012

Montreal Canadiens

47.70

15th

2011-2012

Columbus Blue Jackets

47.68

15th

2008-2009

Tampa Bay Lightning

47.64

14th

2010-2011

Carolina Hurricanes

47.63

9th

2010-2011

Colorado Avalanche

47.55

14th

2008-2009

Montreal Canadiens

47.42

8th

2012-2014

Washington Capitals

47.11

9th

2011-2012

Nashville Predators

47.11

4th

2008-2009

Minnesota Wild

47.08

9th

2008-2009

Edmonton Oilers

47.05

11th

2010-2011

Toronto Maple Leafs

47.02

10th

2009-2010

Montreal Canadiens

46.88

8th

2011-2012

Calgary Flames

46.70

9th

2009-2010

Anaheim Ducks

46.69

11th

2013-2014

Colorado Avalanche

46.54

2nd

2010-2011

New York Islanders

46.47

14th

2008-2009

Atlanta Thrashers

46.43

13th

2009-2010

Colorado Avalanche

46.08

8th

NOTES

  • For teams with a Fenwick% between 46.00 and 46.99, 4/7 missed the playoffs and only one finished above 8th in their conference.  The average place in the standing for teams in this range (rounded) was 9th.
  • For teams with a Fenwick% between 47.00 and 47.99, just 3/22 made the playoffs.  One came 8th, and the other two came in 4th.  The average place in the standings for teams in this range was 11th.
  • For teams with a Fenwick% between 48.00 and 48.99, 8/12 missed the playoffs.  Interestingly enough, each team came between 3rd and 5th in the conference out of this bunch.  The average place in the standings for teams in this range was 10th.
  • Overall, for teams with a Fenwick% between 46.00 and 48.99, 31/41 missed the playoffs and just 7/41 teams finished higher than 8th in their conference.  The average place in the standings for teams in this range was 10th.

This isn’t very encouraging for the Leafs playoff chances, but it’s not terrible news either.  Historically speaking, they certainly seem to have at least a chance at getting in.  They do sit 7th in the East in points right now, have a positive goal differential, and a PDO off 100.4.  So, their record does seem largely sustainable.  I think this aligns pretty closely with what most people think of this team: they have a decent chance, albeit an outside one, at making the playoffs.  I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.