PDO doesn’t stand for anything, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn anything from adding up the overall shooting and save percentages for a team at even strength. A layman’s explanation for ‘PDO’ and why we use it can be found here over at the Backhand Shelf. Basically, if a team is playing with a PDO number way higher than 1.000, they’re producing above their expected output. If a team is playing with a PDO number below 1.000, they’re producing below their expected output. Over the course of a long season, the number will generally correct itself.
|TEAM||Fenwick Close %||Team Shot %||Team Save %||Team PDO|
|Toronto Maple Leafs||45.16%||11.20%||0.920||1.032|
|Tampa Bay Lightning||44.78%||10.70%||0.909||1.016|
|Columbus Blue Jackets||44.95%||8.90%||0.924||1.013|
|Detroit Red Wings||51.75%||7.00%||0.928||0.998|
|New York Rangers||53.09%||6.70%||0.931||0.998|
|Los Angeles Kings||58.47%||8.30%||0.912||0.995|
|St. Louis Blues||53.20%||8.10%||0.907||0.988|
|San Jose Sharks||52.84%||6.30%||0.922||0.985|
|New York Islanders||51.17%||8.20%||0.901||0.983|
|New Jersey Devils||54.08%||6.60%||0.904||0.970|
As always, here are the numbers from last week.
- Then again, if PDO does regress to the mean, nobody told the Toronto Maple Leafs or Anaheim Ducks. After 40 games or so games, we should expect just 5% of the teams in the league to be outside 1.025 or .975 (great work here by Snark SD). The actual number is 23%, as this is officially a silly season and has made an absolute mess of things.
- It’s interesting that the Calgary Flames can’t seem to buy a save, particularly since they tried to sell some at the trading deadline. Isn’t that what happened to the stock market in 2008? Traders were selling assets they didn’t necessarily have?
- The New Jersey Devils could be the best team to miss the playoffs in quite some time. That .904 is not particularly flattering on Martin Brodeur or Johan Hedberg.
- Aside from seven outlying teams… everybody else is following the normal dance. The New York Islanders finally got some bounces their way and they’re in playoff contention. The Minnesota Wild are doing whatever it is the Minnesota Wild do. The Columbus Blue Jackets have gone on this super duper hot streak and find themselves in 10th place.
- Curious to see what happens to Boston’s possession numbers in the absence of Patrice Bergeron. That could dramatically affect Stanley Cup picks. If I had to choose the best all-around player in hockey today, it would probably be Patrice Bergeron. With him out, I think I’ll go with Marc-Andre Bergeron.
- San Jose and St. Louis are good “trap teams” this year and one could land in the “not your standard 8-seed” role. Same thing with the New York Rangers out East. Last five years, One seeds have had much tougher competition than Two seeds. Seems to me that isn’t real fair.