Reference library: Prospects

Updated: November 7, 2012 at 4:05 pm by Eric T.

This article is part of the NHL Numbers reference library, which seeks to collect articles from around the web that have contributed to our understanding of the game.

This page is devoted to articles that touch on prospects. This will include league translations, historic trends, and other things that relate to evaluating prospects.

We need your help to keep the library complete and up to date — contact me on Twitter (@BSH_EricT) or via email (bsh.erict -at- gmail) with suggestions of articles you think we should consider adding.

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Title – Translation factors
Author Date Site Description
Projecting junior hockey players and translating performance to the NHL Gabriel Desjardins 2004? Behind the Net Equivalencies for estimating future NHL production for player in another league
League equivalencies Gabriel Desjardins 2004?   More NHL Equivalencies (PDF)
Canadian Junior A NCAA/Major junior equivalencies Hawerchuk 9/8/2008 Behind the Net Equivalencies for Canadian Junior A leagues
KHL->NHL equivalency with TOI Hawerchuk 7/9/2009 Arctic Ice Hockey PPG and Pts/60 equivalencies for KHL and SEL
Minnesota high school hockey Gabriel Desjardins 6/23/2009 Puck Prospectus Translations from Minnesota HS hockey to NCAA, USHL, and NAHL
On NHL equivalencies Scott Reynolds 7/6/2010 Copper & Blue NHL equivalencies for ’06-07 to ’09-10
How good is the KHL? Bruce Peter 8/4/2011 Puck Worlds KHL equivalency to NHL and Euro leagues
AHL translations, under age 23 Robert Vollman 10/21/2011 Puck Prospectus Non-linear AHL-NHL translation factors
AHL to NHL shot translations Stephen Cooper 5/26/2012 Habs Eyes on the Prize AHL-NHL translations for shot rate and shooting percentage
AHL to NHL translations: Save percentage Stephen Cooper 7/11/2012 Habs Eyes on the Prize AHL-NHL translation for save percentage
AHL-NHL equivalencies in a lockout year Eric T. 10/17/2012 NHL Numbers How much stronger AHL is during a lockout


Title – Other trends
Author Date Site Description
Laraque, Cloutier, firing JFJ, Alex Auld and trading within your conference Tyler Dellow 7/7/2006 mc79hockey AHL and NHL goalie success are closely linked
Projecting goalie performance Bruce McCurdy 10/21/2008 Copper & Blue Goalies break into NHL at wide range of ages
The most interesting thing I’ve written in some time Jonathan Willis 12/30/2008 Copper & Blue Estimating AHL qualcomp by noting PPG of forwards on the ice when a goal is scored
Springfield Falcons’ quality of competition through 40 games Jonathan Willis 1/23/2009 Copper & Blue Changing the AHL qualcomp calculation slightly
The impossibility of projecting goaltenders Hawerchuk 6/1/2009 Hockey Prospectus Variance means we rarely know a goalie’s true talent before deciding his career path
Quality of competition and image resolution Jonathan Willis 7/14/2009 Copper & Blue Why error bars on AHL qualcomp are large
Finnish comps – The military service problem Derek Zona 3/27/2010 Copper & Blue Impact of military service on Finnish prospect numbers
Mo’ money, mo’ skills Scott Reynolds 5/16/2010 Copper & Blue Entry level contract value as a predictor of future success
Johan Backlund: Quality behind Phantom defense Geoffrey Detweiler 6/24/2010 Broad Street Hockey Defining a quality save for AHL play
The importance of a goalie’s first 15 games Hawerchuk 2/23/2011 Arctic Ice Hockey Start of career doesn’t tell us a goalie’s skill, but impacts career length
NHL and AHL shootouts 2005-2011 Hawerchuk 4/13/2011 Arctic Ice Hockey Comparing goalie’s shootout sv% across leagues points to difference in shooter skill
Events and time on ice Scott Reynolds 8/24/2011 Copper & Blue Using how many goals a player was on ice for as a surrogate for AHL TOI
The impact of luck on prospects Derek Zona 11/19/2011 Copper & Blue Variance in factors like sh% can overly impact a prospect’s opportunities
The cult of Stu Tyler Dellow 1/30/2012 mc79hockey CHL draftees who at age 20 are in AHL and not dominating don’t become scorers
Does it take different amounts of time to assess a player’s talent? Hawerchuk 3/19/2012 Arctic Ice Hockey How many hits, faceoffs, or shots it takes to determine a player’s talent level
Looking at AHL goaltenders vs. NHL players Rob Pettapiece 7/6/2012 NHL Numbers Using performance vs players who went on to NHL to assess AHL goalies