Reference library: Goalies

Updated: November 2, 2012 at 4:12 pm by Eric T.

This article is part of the NHL Numbers reference library, which seeks to collect articles from around the web that have contributed to our understanding of the game.

This page is devoted to articles that touch on goaltending. This will include save percentage, team effects, aging profiles, and other things that relate to evaluating goalies.

We need your help to keep the library complete and up to date — contact me on Twitter (@BSH_EricT) or via email (bsh.erict -at- gmail) with suggestions of articles you think we should consider adding.

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Title – Prospects and aging
Author Date Site Description
Laraque, Cloutier, Firing JFJ, Alex Auld and trading within your conference Tyler Dellow 7/7/2006 mc79hockey AHL and NHL success are closely linked
The trouble with drafting goaltenders Kent Wilson 8/14/2008 Five Hole Fanatics Argument against drafting G: hard to project, limited prospect slots
Projecting goalie performance Bruce McCurdy 10/21/2008 Copper & Blue What age do goalies make AHL-to-NHL leap? What was AHL Sv%?
The impossibility of projecting goaltenders Hawerchuk 6/1/2009 Hockey Prospectus The impact of variance on identifying goalie prospects
Goalies in the first round The Contrarian Goaltender 6/21/2009 Brodeur is a Fraud Success rate for drafting goalie in each round
Fooled by randomness: Goaltender save percentage Hawerchuk 4/20/2010 Arctic Ice Hockey How long it takes to get accurate idea of goalie skill
How do goalies age part II David Johnson 4/28/2010 Hockey Analysis Sv% over league average vs age
Goaltender save percentage by age Hawerchuk 4/28/2010 Arctic Ice Hockey How save percentage changes with age
Johan Backlund: Quality behind Phantom defense Geoff Detweiler 6/4/2010 Broad Street Hockey What constitutes a quality start in the AHL
The importance of a goalie’s first 15 games Hawerchuk 2/23/2011 Arctic Ice Hockey Start of career doesn’t predict skill, but impacts career length
Judging goalies: Should we include PK save percentage? Eric T. 1/25/2012 Broad Street Hockey Goalies’ future career is best modeled with career EV Sv%
Aging goalies: What does the future hold for Luongo, Miller & Bryzgalov? JaredL 4/30/2012 Copper & Blue Aging curve: when goalies move from starter to backup to done
AHL to NHL translations: Save percentage Stephan Cooper 7/11/2012 Habs Eyes on the Prize Comparison of AHL and NHL sv% and difficulty of projection
Looking at AHL goaltenders vs NHL players Rob Pettapiece 7/16/2012 NHL Numbers Calculating prospects’ sv% vs shooters who are future NHLers


Title – Valuation Author Date Site Description
Testing Ken Holland Jonathan Willis 7/26/2009 Copper & Blue Many middling goalies are undervalued and poor ones overvalued
A basic goaltending model Gabriel Desjardins 10/7/2009 Puck Prospectus Calculating wins above replacement
Are expensive goaltenders worth the money? Hawerchuk 3/8/2010 Arctic Ice Hockey Calculating wins above replacement and value of top goalies
Goaltender salary per win 2000-01 to 2009-10 Hawerchuk 7/7/2010 Arctic Ice Hockey Fraction of payroll allocated to goaltending is shrinking
What do NHL GMs think is replacement-level goaltending? Hawerchuk 2/24/2011 Arctic Ice Hockey Estimating replacement-level goaltending from standings
Do you get what you pay for? Eric T. 7/5/2011 Broad Street Hockey Single-season EV sv% completely unlinked to cap hit
Can Rinne earn all that money? JaredL 11/15/2011 Driving Play Price per win calculation for goalies
How efficient is the NHL goaltending market? Hawerchuk 7/4/2012 NHL Numbers Second-tier goalies are a bargain, but tougher to evaluate


Title – Team effects
Author Date Site Description
Changes in save percentage as time elapses from past shot Tyler Dellow 2/19/2006 mc79hockey Showing how much lower sv% is for rebounds
Does save percentage fall as time elapses? Tyler Dellow 2/21/2006 mc79hockey Going a long time between shots has no effect on sv%
Shots attempts against The Contrarian Goaltender 11/17/2008 Brodeur is a Fraud No relationship between team shots against and sv%
The ‘shot quality’ fantasy Vic Ferrari 7/24/2009 Irreverent Oiler Fans Sv% when a goalie changes teams is no larger than variance
Even-strength goaltender shot quality since the lockout Hawerchuk 10/10/2009 Arctic Ice Hockey Multiyear expected and actual save percentages
The win threshold The Contrarian Goaltender 10/10/2009 Brodeur is a Fraud Calculating team impact on goalie wins
Shot distribution by game state Scott Reynolds 1/3/2010 Copper & Blue How many PK shots did each goalie face
Is it possible to determine goaltender true talent on the PK? Hawerchuk 3/5/2010 Arctic Ice Hockey Two years of PK Sv% data has essentially zero predictive value
How much skill is there in goaltending? Tom Awad 5/7/2010 Hockey Prospectus In 3-yr total EV Sv%, see mostly luck, some skill, no shot quality
DIGR: A defense independent rating of NHL goaltenders using spatially smoothed save percentage maps Michael Schuckers 3/4/2011 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Adjusting sv% for shot location
Team effects and even strength save percentage JLikens 5/10/2011 Objective NHL Two ways of looking for team effect in EV sv% give split decision
Team effects and penalty kill save percentage JLikens 5/10/2011 Objective NHL Two ways of looking for team effect in PK sv% give split decision
Zone start effects on goalie save percentage David Johnson 4/26/2012 Hockey Analysis Impact of faceoffs on goalie save percentage


Title – On goaltending
Author Date Site Description
Goalie fatigue The Contrarian Goaltender 8/19/2008 Brodeur is a Fraud Goalies show no sign of fatigue until perhaps 70+ games
Save percentage vs league average The Contrarian Goaltender 10/2/2008 Brodeur is a Fraud Comparing sv% to league average to combat era effects
Estimating Brodeur’s shot prevention The Contrarian Goaltender 10/30/2008 Brodeur is a Fraud Elite puckhandling might be worth a shot per game
Howe and why Robert Vollman 3/25/2009 Hockey Prospectus Defining quality starts
The value of rebound control The Contrarian Goaltender 4/21/2009 Brodeur is a Fraud Arguing that rebounds are a minor factor in goalie value
Yet another angle on Khabibulin Tyler Dellow 7/25/2009 mc79hockey Given >5000 shots, past sv% models future sv% reasonably well
Do goalies wear down from playing too many games? Jonathan Willis 9/14/2009 Backhand Shelf No end-of-season dip for goalies with a lot of games played
Why goalie equipment was not responsible for the scoring drop The Contrarian Goaltender 11/15/2009 Brodeur is a Fraud Goaltender equipment a minor factor in rising sv%
Clutch play The Contrarian Goaltender 12/2/2009 Brodeur is a Fraud Laying out the argument that clutch play is a tiny factor
Changing goalies = shuffling the deck chairs? Hawerchuk 5/31/2010 Arctic Ice Hockey Goal differential is worse after a goalie change than without one
Goaltender talent Hawerchuk 9/16/2010 Arctic Ice Hockey How much of observed difference between goalies is due to luck
Ilya Bryzgalov and the shootout Eric T. 2/10/2012 Broad Street Hockey No relationship between sv% and shootout sv%
Do goaltenders really get in a rhythm? Eric T. 2/21/2012 Broad Street Hockey Tracking sv% versus consecutive games played
NHL average save percentages still on the rise Derek Zona 4/23/2012 Copper & Blue Charting EV sv% since the lockout
Replacement level goaltending in the NHL Scott Reynolds 5/1/2012 Copper & Blue Replacement goalie sv% has been rising sharply
What should we expect from NHL goaltenders? Bruce Peter 5/10/2012 Habs Eyes on the Prize Average performance of starter, platoon, backup, replacement
The myth of the hot goalie: Consistent goaltenders vs. inconsistent goaltenders Eric T. 5/11/2012 NHL Numbers Goalie streaks very closely match a coin-flipping model
Tender touches: An attempt to measure Martin Brodeur’s puckhandling impact Bruce McCurdy 5/25/2012 Cult of Hockey Tracking goalie puckhandling
Jonathan Quick – not good high stick side? Hawerchuk 6/7/2012 Arctic Ice Hockey League-avg sv% for shots aimed at each quadrant of goal
Why are goalie save percentages rising? Eric T. 10/9/2012 NHL Numbers Rise in EV sv% is mostly from better crop of incoming goalies