Photo by Ryan Meier, all rights reserved.
The 2013 NHL Draft order might have some excitement to it, excitement that’s been stripped away of the last three drafts by the Edmonton Oilers and their grip on the worst. But with a possible season cancellation in the works, this draft might come down to the luck of a ping pong ball.
In 2005, the NHL put together a fantasy pool like draft:
Teams were assigned 1 to 3 balls based on their playoff appearances and first overall draft picks from the past three years. According to the draft order, the selection worked its way up to 30 as usual; then instead of repeating the order as in past years, the draft “snaked” back down to the team with the first pick. Therefore the team with the first pick overall would not pick again until the 60th pick. The team with the 30th pick would also get the 31st pick.
If a similar agreement were to be reached after cancelling the season, the Columbus Blue Jackets would have the best shot at winning first overall, but it’s not a significant advantage:
5 Balls: Columbus
3 Balls: Calgary, Carolina, Dallas, Minnesota, New York Islanders, Toronto, Winnipeg
2 Balls: Anaheim, Buffalo, Colorado, Florida, St. Louis, Tampa Bay
1 Ball: Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Edmonton, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, Ottawa, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Vancouver, Washington
…the Blue Jackets would have just a 9.6% chance of winning.
What would the league-wide reaction be to Nathan MacKinnon in Pittsburgh? What about Los Angeles? And my, oh my, imagine if the Leafs won the lottery.
Now that Bob McKenzie has thrown his hat into the ring, it’s time to unveil the initial 2013 Consensus Draft Rankings. The sources for the consensus list are Bob McKenzie, Future Considerations, ISS, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus, and The Scouting Report.
|1||F||Nathan MacKinnon||9/1/1995||5’11||180||R||Halifax Moosehead|
|2||D||Seth Jones||11/3/1994||6’3||205||R||Portland Winterhawks|
|3||F||Sean Monahan||10/12/1994||6’2||180||R||Ottawa 67s|
|6||F||Hunter Shinkaruk||11/13/1994||5’10||170||L||Medicine Hat Tigers|
|7||D||Rasmus Ristolainen||10/27/1994||6’3||210||R||TPS Turku
|10||F||Curtis Lazar||2/2/1995||6||190||R||Edmonton Oil Kings|
|11||D||Ryan Pulock||10/6/1994||6||195||R||Brandon Wheat Kings|
|12||F||Jonathan Drouin||3/27/1995||5’11||180||L||Halifax Moosehead|
|13||F||Adam Erne||4/20/1995||6||200||L||Quebec Remparts|
|14||F||Kerby Rychel||10/7/1994||6’1||185||L||Windsor Spitfires|
|16||D||Nikita Zadorov||4/16/1995||6’4||205||L||London Knights|
|17||D||Josh Morrissey||3/28/1995||6||185||L||Prince Albert Raiders|
|18||F||Jacob De la Rose||5/20/1995||6’2||185||F||Leksand|
|19||F||Anthony Duclair||7/26/1995||6||160||L||Quebec Remparts|
|22||G||Zach Fucale||5/28/1995||6||170||L||Halifax Moosehead|
|23||F||Max Domi||3/2/1995||5’9||185||L||London Knights|
|24||F||Ryan Kujawinski||3/30/1995||6’2||180||L||Kingston Frontenacs|
|25||D||Darnell Nurse||2/4/1995||6’4||185||L||SSM Greyhounds|
|26||F||Ryan Hartman||9/20/1994||5’11||185||R||Plymouth Whalers|
|27||F||William Carrier||12/20/1994||6||195||L||Cape Breton|
|28||D||Ian McCoshen||8/5/1995||6’3||205||L||Waterloo Blackhawks|
|29||F||Pavel Buchnevich||4/17/1995||6||165||l||Almaz Cherepovets|
|30||F||Artturi Lehkonen||7/4/1995||5’10||163||L||TPS Turku|
- The initial top 30 is heavily weighted in favor of forwards. There are 21 forwards in the initial top 30, compared to 17 in 2012’s initial rankings.
- If you’re looking to group these guys right now, it’s MacKinnon a unanimous #1, Jones a unanimous #2 and Monahan has separated himself from the rest, then Lindholm, Barkov, Shinkaruk, and Ristolainen are cloesly bunched together.
- Two sons of ex-NHL players are in the top 30: Max Domi and Kerby Rychel.
- Only one goaltender is in the top 30: Halifax’s Zach Fucale.
- Speaking of Halifax, they lead the way with 3 players in the top 30: Mackinnon, Fucale and Jonathan Drouin.
- The current league breakdown is as follows: OHL – 7, QMJHL – 6, WHL – 5, SEL – 4, Sm-Liiga – 3, USHL – 3, KHL – 2. That’s more balance than the draft has seen in quite some time.
- The breakdown by nationality: Canada – 15, USA – 6, Finland – 3, Russia – 3, Sweden – 3