Duncan Keith had a negative Corsi Rel last year, but he’s not weak competition
By Matt Boulton from Vancouver, Canada (Kane, Keith and Kopecky) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Yesterday, we published an article about evaluating quality of competition by looking at the opponents’ average time on ice. The best players typically see the most ice time, so a player whose opponents get a lot of minutes is probably facing tough competition. By this metric, top-line forwards appeared to face tougher competition than is suggested by other metrics.
The reason for this became clear when we separated out the quality of forwards and defensemen that a player faced. Even the offense-first forwards who are used against mediocre competition see their opponents’ best defensemen. This opened up the interesting possibility of using quality of competition to evaluate not just the strength of the competition, but the type of situations — facing good forwards and bad defensemen might be similar in difficulty to facing bad forwards and good defensemen, but it is a very different type of usage.
We showed a couple of examples, one from a team that matched their top forwards with the opposition’s top forwards, and one from a team that had an offense-first scoring line and a defensive-minded shutdown line. A number of people inquired about their favorite team, so we decided to publish plots for each of the 30 teams for 2011-12.
Players who faced the strongest competition will be found in the top-right of a plot, while players who faced the weakest competition will be found in the bottom-left. Defensive specialists will be found in the bottom-right, and offensive specialists will be found in the top-left.
Click on any plot to get a larger image.
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