Alexander Ovechkin, lies, damned lies, and statistics

Updated: May 13, 2012 at 12:04 pm by Jonathan Willis

Photo via Wikimedia Commons, GNU Free Documentation license

Photo via Wikimedia Commons, GNU Free Documentation license

There was a relationship that came up a few times during Washington’s post-season run, ended in (yet another) one-goal game last night against New York. When Alexander Ovechkin played more than 20:00 in a game, the Capitals were 1-and-5; when Ovechkin played less than 20:00 per game, the Capitals were 6-and-2.

Is that useful information?

No, it isn’t. Rather, it’s a case of lies, damned lies, and statistics.

That quote, popularized by Mark Twain, refers to the way that a statistic, while being factually accurate, can mislead.

Taking the numbers from the opening paragraph, and no other information, we might conclude that Washington has a better chance of winning with Ovechkin playing reduced minutes. Certainly, there’s a strong correlation between Washington winning and Ovechkin playing less. In this case, however, correlation does not equal causation.

Here’s another strong relationship: the one between scoring first and winning a hockey game. In the 2012 playoffs, Washington went 7-and-1 when scoring first. They lost all six games they played when the opposition scored first. Scoring first, as has been shown time and again in the past, has a strong relationship to winning. This is especially true for teams like Washington – where the coaching strategy is essentially to score one goal and then bunker down for the rest of the game.

Washington doesn’t need Ovechkin on the ice to bunker down. His talents lie more to the offensive side of the puck.

Unsurprisingly, then, the games where Ovechkin played the most minutes also tended to be the games where Washington was trying to come back from an early deficit. Of the six games where Ovechkin played more than 20 minutes, four of them were contests where Washington was scored on first. Of the two remaining, one was a lengthy overtime game, while the other saw Washington hold the lead for just a dozen minutes of the game. Ovechkin played when the Capitals were behind on the scoreboard; not surprisingly, the Capitals tended to lose when they were behind on the scoreboard.

Of the eight games where Ovechkin played less than 20:00, six of them were contests where Washington scored first and spent most of the night defending the lead.

Without knowledge of Dale Hunter’s strategy, knowing that Ovechkin plays more in losses is highly misleading.